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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has downgraded its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 for the third month in a row, as the group acknowledges a slowdown in global fuel use, Bloomberg reports.
In its monthly report, OPEC said it expects global oil demand to rise by 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd), about 2%, in 2024 (106,000 bpd less than forecast last month) and by 1.64 million bpd in 2025 (from 1.74 million bpd in September).
The revision „is largely driven by data received during this period, combined with slightly lower expectations in some regions,” OPEC said.
And after three successive downward revisions, OPEC’s forecast is almost double that of the International Energy Agency (EIA).
Even the decisions of OPEC member states suggest that they do not trust the forecasts of the Vienna-based secretariat, postponing their plans to restore crude production.
Oil crisis – OPEC worsened demand forecasts in 2024 and 2025
OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) is expected to gradually begin restoring oil production of 2.2 million barrels per day in monthly installments. The process starting in December, two months later than initially planned. But analysts are skeptical that the restoration of production will resume. This amid the slowdown in China and the increase in supplies from North and South America.
Although the price of a barrel of oil has risen amid the conflict in the Middle East to 77 dollars. It is still too low for some OPEC member states.
The alliance’s efforts to support prices have been undermined by countries that have not made agreed production cuts, such as:
- Iraq,
- Kazakhstan
- Russia.
At the December meeting, OPEC+ is expected to announce a decision on the timing of the production increase in 2025.
